Analysis of Thursday’s deals:
30M chart of the EUR / USD pair
The EUR / USD currency pair showed an absolutely disastrous movement for traders on Thursday. If it traded just badly in the past few days, Thursday’s moves were even worse. It all started with a banal flat, followed by a collapse of the European currency, then a recovery and again a flat in the US trading session. This is if you look at the lower timeframes. And if you look at the higher TFs (from 4-hour and higher), then the flat has been going on for a long time, since the price has been in a limited range for more than a week. All this greatly complicates the life of traders, especially beginners. Recall that a trend (of any scale) is a trader’s friend. When it is not there, you have to arrange various manipulations in order to earn at least a couple of dozen points. Today’s macroeconomic statistics also left much to be desired. Business activity indices in the European Union turned out to be much worse than forecasts and, it seems, everything is fine, since the euro also fell. The euro began to fall an hour before the release of the indices. Of course, it can be assumed that a certain part of the major players knew in advance what the indices would be, but we didn’t know that! Therefore, there is no need to talk about an adequate market reaction today either.
5M chart of the EUR / USD pair
The technical picture also looks very sad on the 5-minute timeframe. First, the price formed two signals near the level of 1.0564, which was recognized as irrelevant by the end of the day, the first of which turned out to be false. Therefore, beginners from the very start of trading received a loss. It’s good that the short position on the second signal turned out to be quite good and made it possible to earn. It was possible to earn money, because at the time of the formation of the signal, the pair just started to collapse and it was very difficult to enter the deal in time. However, even if some traders managed to do this, they could not make a good profit, because the pair could not reach the nearest target level of 1.0465. Therefore, the deal closed near the level of 1.0532. And about the same level, three more false signals were formed at the US trading session. This time one cannot blame technique for everything, since an incomprehensible movement began after the US business activity indices were published, which also turned out to be much worse than forecasts. Therefore, at this time it was necessary to be a bit more careful.
How to trade on Friday:
The movement on the 30-minute timeframe cannot be described in words. It is absolutely incomprehensible. There is a minimum upward slope, but the pair is constantly changing the strength of movement and direction. Thus, we characterize such a movement as a “swing”. Novice traders should be aware of this nature of the movement and not take unnecessary risks. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0400, 1.0483, 1.0532, 1.0542, 1.0582, 1.0607, 1.0636. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. There will be no important events in the European Union on Friday. Meanwhile, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan will be released in America, but now it is even difficult to say which report can be worked out and which one can be ignored. Therefore, just in case, we expect a reaction to this index as well.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
* The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.